But although Washington may have a rough sense of when China’s military will be ready to invade Taiwan, American spies have difficulty understanding Chinese objectives and leveraging that understanding to anticipate Chinese actions. intelligence community have worked hard to understand China’s plans, intentions, and capabilities. The CIA and the other agencies in the U.S. There is a reason for this enormous uncertainty. Yet there is widespread disagreement among analysts in Washington about Beijing’s military plans and if and when such an invasion might occur. Similarly, in late February, CIA Director William Burns stated that Beijing will be prepared to conquer Taiwan by 2027. But so far, the administration has not been able to confirm plans for such aid or to find concrete evidence that such transfers are taking place. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that China could soon begin providing Russia with lethal aid for its war in Ukraine-a step that would dramatically change the dynamic of the conflict. Over the past few months, as competition with China has intensified, the Biden administration has struggled to provide the United States and its allies with a clear picture of Beijing’s intentions.
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